We have written extensively in recent years about the relevance of geopolitical considerations for business operations, and at this stage, a state of geopolitical volatility has become something of an expected norm. This will certainly continue to be a defining characteristic for the global political violence landscape 2025. But as we noted in our 2024 Special Edition, underlying this mutability is an increasingly apparent theme of fragmentation, which is driving a realignment not only of major geopolitical powers, but also in the domestic political sphere as key actors jostle for influence in the wake of fractious coalitions and rising populism. For businesses and risk managers, intensifying multipolarity at all levels of (geo)politics, government and society continues to deepen existing complexities, generating more ‘noise’ and less clarity around which of these dynamics spell concerns that need to be prioritised. And in many cases, the immediately obvious concerns are simply the tip of an iceberg, obscuring emerging threats that can catch unprepared businesses off guard.
With this in mind, our 2025 Political Violence Special Edition explores how some of the key drivers of instability and change have shaped the political, security and commercial landscapes globally in 2024. We also scan the horizon to reflect on what challenges these dynamics will bring in the year ahead.
Voters have shown growing resolve to hold governments accountable for perceived failures in addressing bread-and-butter issues like rising living costs and service delivery. During 2024’s 'election super-cycle,' this was evidenced in several outcomes where ruling parties and majority coalitions were driven out, or lost significant portions of their voter base, prompting concern among investors that this could lead to policy changes and potential instability. We now look to 2025 with anticipation of some unpredictability as new governments continue to settle into their roles. At the same time, upcoming elections in countries like Canada and Germany foreshadow further uncertainty as a cocktail of political, economic and social pressures divide opinion among voters and politicians alike.
As domestic pressures loom large, some states – including the US – progressively turn their gaze inwards. Meanwhile, other states continue to seek alliances to further their agenda – and with deepening rifts among traditional Western alliances like the US and European Union, certain actors have viewed this as an opportunity to rebalance the scales of regional and global power. In the case of BRICS+, having added new members, strengthened economic cooperation and inched its way towards greater clout on the world stage, it remains far from becoming a ‘counterweight’ to Western dominated global politics and institutions. Yet, the coming year will see this bloc play an increasingly important role in diplomatic efforts, conflicts and trade disputes. Other alliances warrant more concern as Russia, Iran and North Korea’s deepening military cooperation poses challenges for regional conflicts and stability in the Korean Peninsula.
Conflict and instability continue to dominate regional landscapes in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. In 2024 we saw the Israel-Palestine war expand into Lebanon, and prompt missile strikes between Iran and Israel. Violations of an extremely tentative ceasefire agreement drive the overhanging threat of resurgent fighting that could prolong the conflicts in the Middle East. Ukraine, meanwhile, has made some striking inroads into Russia, and indicated a desire to cooperate with the US on peace talks, but Russia’s momentum could derail hope for a prompt end to the conflict. Sudan’s security situation has also deteriorated with little prospects for improvement in the months ahead, risking a prolific regional humanitarian crisis, and fuelling the weapons trade poised to exacerbate other regional insurgencies. Much remains unclear about the trajectory of these conflicts, although the consequent strain on regional economies, security and stability will continue to be deeply felt even if ceasefires are negotiated – or manage to hold.
In the context of shifting conflict dynamics, Islamic militancy has proven adaptable and resilient. Coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have left security and governance vacuums that have enabled militants to expand territorial control, while the Taliban in Afghanistan has struggled to contain the growing footprint of Islamic State-Khorasan Province beyond its borders. As wider dynamics contribute to growing resentment among such groups, especially towards state actors they consider to be pro-Israel or anti-Muslim, attacks by self-radicalised lone-actors in Europe continue will keep authorities on high alert.
Amid this plethora of interconnected hurdles, governments are contending with polarising public opinion and political tensions around issues including economic struggles, the Middle East conflict, and wider immigration challenges. Resulting unrest and strikes have affected key industries, and have inflicted significant economic losses in affected countries, sometimes amounting to millions of US dollars. Perhaps, with certain ceasefires, immigration caps or changes in the configurations of some governments, some of these grievances will be addressed. But the challenge in balancing voter demands with the realities of governance, economic targets and external pressures make tackling these tasks something of a tightrope walk between now and the next elections – and some governments may not make it that far.
In the coming year, (geo)political fragmentation will become even more apparent across the political violence landscape, and the resulting uncertainty increasingly complicated to navigate. For business leaders, having actionable, timely intelligence to help connect the dots between real-time developments and their relevant implications remains critical. But looking ahead, as we witness era-defining shifts in traditional alliances, political configurations, conflicts and social movements, the most resilient businesses will be those who understand that the need to look beneath the surface at the risks – and opportunities – these changes could drive in the longer term.
Seismic shifts: elections drive uncertainty around political change and (in)stability
Following elections across 74 countries in 2024, many long-ruling parties and incumbent coalitions saw significant defeats, with some cast out by voters demanding greater accountability, and others barely clinging to power. As new power configurations take the reins, investors and voters alike are uncertain as to what these changes may mean for political stability and the business landscape. Read the article
Tides of change: Shifting geopolitical alliances in a fragmenting world order
Deepening relationships among non-Western countries have underpinned much geopolitical turbulence in recent years, impacting – albeit at times subtly – conflict dynamics, diplomatic efforts, sanctions regimes and global trade. Amid rising sentiment among many emerging economies that global power dynamics need rebalancing, partnerships like that of the BRICS countries could, in time, emerge as a stronger counterweight to Western agendas and interests. But other alliances, like North Korea, Russia and Iran, pose greater potential for harmful disruption. Read the article
Prospects for peace: Global conflict in 2025
With the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas conflict and Sudanese civil war ongoing, these conflict hotspots remain volatile and subject to dramatic shifts in trajectory over the coming year. Many factors stand to impact these dynamics, ranging from the requisite political will among warring parties to maintain ceasefires and negotiate in good faith, to the agendas of foreign backers. Meanwhile, the regional fallout continues to drive economic disruptions, security challenges and widespread uncertainty. Read the article
The Shifting Threat: Islamist militancy in 2025
In the wake of ongoing counterterrorism efforts in in the Middle East in recent years, Islamist militant groups like Al Qaeda and Islamic State have faced pressures to find more accommodating environments. These groups and their various offshoots have worked to establish a greater footprint in regions like the Sahel in Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Central and South Asia, while Europe has also become increasingly vulnerable to attacks by lone actors sympathetic to the agendas of such groups. Read the article
Public discontent: What will drive protests in 2025?
As fractures across political and social divides proliferate over issues like the Middle East conflict, contentious or ineffective government policies, and rising anti-immigration sentiment, mass activism will remain a significant destabilising force in several countries. With grievances likely to persist, and some protests running for days, weeks and months at a time, driving commercial and economic disruptions, unrest in the coming year poses challenges for governments globally. Read the article
