Shannon Lorimer explores the main drivers behind the large-scale anti-government protests in recent weeks.
Since late October, tens of thousands of opposition activists have taken to the streets nationwide, rejecting the Georgian Dream (GD) party’s fourth consecutive parliamentary election victory since 2012. The Central Election Commission, often criticised by opposition groups for its perceived alignment with the ruling party, announced that the GD secured 54 percent of the vote in the 26 October poll. However, opposition activists and some observers have raised allegations of widespread electoral fraud, amplifying long-standing concerns about the GD’s authoritarian tendencies and its perceived shift away from EU integration towards closer ties with Russia. By late November and early December, the protests grew in size and intensity, drawing tens of thousands of participants and escalating into violent clashes with security forces. The unrest also prompted resignations from several GD officials, civil servants, and ambassadors, in solidarity with the demonstrators. Regardless of whether the GD survives the unrest or not, it is crucial to examine the underlying factors that have driven protests, particularly in contrast to demonstrations surrounding previous elections.
GD’s decision to halt EU membership negotiations
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s late November announcement to suspend EU accession negotiations until the end of 2028 reignited anti-government protests. Accusing European politicians of “meddling” in Georgia’s parliamentary elections and using EU talks as “blackmail,” Kobakhidze also pledged to reject EU budget support. These decisions galvanised opposition supporters, who had previously struggled to unify after being demoralised by the election results and inter-party divisions. One poll from 2023 indicates that 79 percent of Georgians favour EU membership, suggesting that even some GD supporters back accession. Yet, since taking power in 2012, the GD – led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who amassed significant wealth in Russia – has pursued a dual strategy. While officially seeking EU membership, the party has cracked down on political opposition and strengthened economic ties with Russia. Earlier this year, the EU froze Georgia’s accession process and suspended EUR 121 million (USD 130 million) in aid, citing the adoption of controversial measures such as the “foreign agent” and anti-LGBTQ+ laws passed by the GD government. Although these moves did not trigger mass protests, likely due to the GD’s public commitment to EU integration, Kobakhidze’s announcement confirmed long-standing fears that the party is not genuinely committed to joining the EU. This revelation explains the scale of the recent demonstrations.
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s late November announcement to suspend EU accession negotiations until the end of 2028 reignited anti-government protests.’’
Western support for anti-government protesters
Opposition protesters have garnered significant diplomatic support from US and European policymakers, a dynamic not commonly observed in other developing nations with contested elections. The US has taken decisive actions, including suspending its strategic partnership with Georgia following the government’s decision to halt EU accession talks. The US State Department condemned the Georgian government’s move, stating it contravened the country’s constitutional commitment to European integration and heightened susceptibility to Russian influence. Additionally, the US criticised the excessive use of force against peaceful demonstrators, underscoring the importance of the right to peaceful protest. European leaders have also expressed solidarity with the protesters. For example, the European Parliament adopted a resolution in late November that said the election was neither free nor fair, and called for new elections under international supervision. The US and EU had also introduced several punitive measures, including sanctions on GD officials, in response to the “foreign agent” legislation and security clampdown on those who protested against it. This robust international support played a key role in emboldening the protesters.
Opposition parties’ fight for survival
Opposition protests are partly driven by parties’ fear about their own survival in the aftermath of the GD’s fourth consecutive electoral victory. They argue that the GD has steadily expanded its influence over state institutions and marginalised political rivals. During the recent election campaign, the Georgian Young Lawyers’ Association, a Tbilisi-based non-governmental organisation, reported multiple incidents of violence and obstruction, mainly targeting opposition politicians. The GD also threatened to ban the United National Movement (UNM), a prominent opposition party that governed the country from 2004 to 2012, intensifying fears of a one-party state. These concerns drove opposition groups to form coalitions ahead of the elections and to stage large-scale protests in recent weeks, despite facing police crackdowns.
A more partisan future
Georgia faces an increasingly divided political landscape, regardless of how the unrest unfolds. The government’s decision to suspend EU membership negotiations appears to have crossed a critical red line for many. This move has deepened polarisation, leaving one side perpetually disillusioned. The escalating divide is likely to have lasting political, social, and economic repercussions, undermining national cohesion and complicating Georgia’s democratic trajectory.
