The resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina signals a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, but still falls within the usual pattern of Bangladeshi politics over the past four decades.
On 5 August, Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, resigned and fled the country after weeks of student-driven anti-government protests, marking the end of the Awami League’s (AL) 15-year rule. More than 300 people have been killed, tens of thousands injured, and at least 12,000 detained since students began demonstrating against the quota-based government job recruitment system in July. Following Hasina’s departure, Bangladesh’s army chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, announced the imminent formation of an interim government that will govern the country and be responsible for holding new elections.
Hasina’s resignation prompted large-scale public celebrations, signalling a cessation of anti-government protests for the time being, although violence and sabotage by the AL’s political rivals has intensified countrywide.
Demise of a seemingly infallible government
Hasina’s political dominance was marked by the Awami League party’s (AL) four successive electoral victories since 2008, often under controversial circumstances that involved systematic repression of opposition groups. Her administration routinely suppressed dissenting voices, media outlets, and human rights activists. Hasina strategically populated the ranks of the security establishments with her loyalists, thereby reinforcing her control.
Most recently, using police and armed Awami Youth League members, the government responded to the job quota protests with considerable violence, killing hundreds of protesters, injuring tens of thousands, and detaining over 12,000. The excessive reaction only intensified the protests, which shifted their focus to demand Hasina’s resignation. As citizens from all strata of society joined the anti-government demonstrations, the powerful army became increasingly hesitant to be seen as propping up the Hasina administration, even indirectly. These factors eventually culminated in the end of Hasina’s prolonged rule.
Prospects for renewed unrest
Despite General Zaman’s call for calm following Hasina’s departure, opposition groups including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have launched a campaign of violence and destruction against the outgoing government, AL and police personnel, targeting houses, and other assets. Violence is commonplace in Bangladesh’s zero-sum political culture. The military is expected to curtail such attacks in the coming days, though given the extensive scope of such violence, it does not have the capacity to respond to every incident. Government-backed political repression will also intensify should the BNP return to power following new elections, as its activists will seek revenge against AL government operatives who systematically cracked down on them over the past 15 years.
A return to the usual past?
Since 1991, Bangladeshi politics have been dominated by the AL and the BNP. In between these parties replacing one another in government, there has often been political upheaval that resulted in military-backed interim governments taking power. Such a government led the country from 2007 to 2009 before organising elections that brought the AL to power. The duration of the new interim government announced by General Zaman remains uncertain. Despite President Mohammed Shahabuddin vowing that a vote will be held as soon as possible, the new administration may drag its feet and, akin to the previous interim government, deprioritise democratic legitimacy to address more immediate challenges. These could include reestablishing law and order, addressing some of the public grievances, and focusing on revitalising the economy. The interim administration may also pursue its own vested interests while in power. However, lengthy interim government rule will likely reignite dissatisfaction and protests by ordinary citizens and political parties demanding a return to democratic rule, which would keep Bangladeshi politics in an indefinite state of flux.
