Qtr 1, 2025 | Testing the travel spirit: The global implications of US foreign policy

As geopolitical sands shift amid the new US administration’s realignment of its domestic and foreign policy agenda, the global travel sector faces some uncertainty over the direct and potentially slower-to-emerge implications for travel safety. Saif Islam and Erin Drake consider what these implications may look like over the coming year.

Since taking office in January 2025, President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ policies have included cuts to US humanitarian aid, tariffs on partner countries, and potential travel bans. This has already affected the US domestic tourism landscape. Proposed tariffs on Canada have prompted many Canadians to boycott US trips, driving a year on year 2.4 percent and 23 percent decline in air and road travel in February respectively. As US authorities tighten immigration enforcement, the UK, Germany and several other countries have updated their travel advisories to warn citizens that holding a valid visa or Electronic System for Travel Authorisation does not guarantee entry into the country.

However, specific repercussions on the global travel security environment are currently limited and will likely be slower to emerge. Nevertheless, a possible rise in anti-US sentiment, geopolitical tensions, and the potential impact on local security environments in some countries could have wide-ranging implications for US travellers, aid workers, and maritime operators.

Proposed tariffs on Canada have prompted many Canadians to boycott US trips, driving a year on year 2.4 percent and 23 percent decline in air and road travel in February respectively.’’

Potential rise in anti-American sentiment

There is currently no specific evidence to suggest that anti-US sentiment against the current administration’s policies has affected US travellers directly. However, US government support for Israel in the Israel-Hamas war, and Trump’s plans regarding the redevelopment of the Gaza Strip angered people in several Middle Eastern countries. In 2025, protests denouncing various US policies have occurred globally, including at US embassies and consulates in Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Greenland, Ukraine and France. In Panama, demonstrators even burned a US flag over Trump’s intent to control the Panama Canal. Frustration will mostly continue to drive protests and wider boycotts of US products rather than direct acts against travellers. However, tensions driven by US foreign policy posturing could certainly contribute to a less welcoming environment, and occasional acts of harassment and violence remain likely.

US nationals also face an ongoing risk of wrongful detention in certain countries, particularly those seeking leverage in economic or diplomatic disputes with the US, such as Russia and Iran. However, the Trump administration has undertaken several measures to normalise relations with Russia, which may reduce Russia’s intent to detain US nationals, while Iran may feel more motivated given President Trump’s reintroduction of a maximum pressure campaign against Iran. In 2024, 83 percent of cases in which US nationals were detained were deemed wrongful, with nearly 50 percent of freed individuals released through political exchanges.

Travel safety

• US travellers would likely benefit from exercising increased vigilance, avoiding political discussions, and staying informed about local security conditions, particularly acts of targeted anti-American violence.
• In high-risk areas, travellers should take additional precautions such as maintaining a low profile, and following travel measures in US embassy advisories.

Aid workers in the line of fire

2024 marked the deadliest on record for aid workers, with at least 380 killed, and 114 kidnapped. The US administration’s efforts to cut spending on the US Agency for International Development (USAID) has raised concerns around the potential consequences for aid workers in high-risk jurisdictions. USAID, for example, funds the International NGO Safety Organisation (INSO), which coordinates safety efforts and crisis response support for over 1,300 NGOs in volatile regions. The organisation has already announced cuts to critical safety and first aid training for personnel in hostile environments.

Aid cuts may also indirectly affect the wider operating environment in already unstable areas like conflict zones, where humanitarian workers are most needed and most vulnerable. In Haiti, for example, US budget cuts to the Kenyan-led support mission to address proliferating gang violence could affect the security environment in its capital, Port-au-Prince, where many aid organisations have already stopped operating over safety concerns amid kidnappings and attacks by criminal groups.

Maritime security concerns in the Middle East and East Africa

US foreign policy could also have implications for the wider maritime security landscape, driving increased risks of detention, kidnappings and hijackings for vessels and crew transiting in volatile areas.

Arabian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz

Trump’s February 2025 reinstatement of sanctions against Iran’s oil exports to curb its nuclear ambitions has incensed Iranian leadership and led to a rejection of subsequent US proposals for negotiating a new nuclear agreement. Iran has previously shown its teeth amid increased tensions with the US, including through harassment and detention of US military and other commercial vessels by its naval forces in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz. As diplomatic relations between the US and Iran evolve in the coming year, it remains feasible that tensions could drive an elevated threat of vessel and crew detentions to Israeli- and US-linked vessels operating in the area.  

Insecurity in the Red Sea and Somali Coast

In 2023 and 2024, escalating Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea in response to the Israel-Hamas war drove vessels to reroute via the Indian Ocean. Coupled with a shift in international maritime security efforts towards the Red Sea, this contributed to a resurgence in Somali piracy in the area; while no incidents were recorded since 2020, 2023 saw six attacks on vessels, and 22 attacks occurred in 2024. With the Israel-Hamas ceasefire collapsing in mid-March, Houthis have resumed attacks on both merchant vessels and Israeli territory, prompting extensive US airstrikes in response. As a result, the maritime security situation will remain precarious in the Red Sea in the coming months.