In tackling the country’s persistently high levels of violent crime, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has intensified security operations led by the military. This marks a publicised departure from the ‘hugs not bullets’ approach of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), although its success is not guaranteed, writes Shannon Lorimer.
When President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October 2024, she appeared likely to continue AMLO’s flagship policy of ‘abrazos, no balazos’ (hugs not bullets). The policy favoured social programs to deter vulnerable and impoverished youth from joining criminal organisations, over violent confrontations with cartels. While the execution and results of this policy have been mixed, Sheinbaum had signalled intent to follow this course as AMLO’s chosen successor. However, after five months in office, Sheinbaum has made some palpable changes to Mexico’s security policy, and with some pressure from US President Donald Trump, she has adopted a more militarised approach to crack down on criminal organisations.
The modest successes of ‘hugs not bullets’
‘Hugs not bullets’ produced some improvements to the security environment, with a decrease in homicides from 100.5 homicides per day in 2018 when AMLO entered office to 82.1 at the end of his term. Nevertheless, the strategy of accommodating the cartels ultimately contributed to a rise in violence, with the US military estimating that drug cartels control between 30 and 35 percent of Mexico’s territory and the number of missing people increasing by 27 percent in the first four years of AMLO’s six-year term. Moreover, the ‘hugs not bullets’ policy itself was never fully realised. AMLO himself admitted that the scale and severity of organised crime was so extreme that maintaining some military pressure on cartels was crucial to avoid destabilising multiple regions. In AMLO’s final weeks in office, congress passed a reform to place the Guardia Nacional (National Guard), which includes former federal and military police, under military control. The reform transferred civilian policing responsibilities to the military, marking a pivot towards militarisation that has intensified under Sheinbaum.
Sheinbaum’s shift in policy
Sheinbaum was inaugurated amid ongoing conflict in Sinaloa State between factions of the powerful Sinaloa Cartel, which, in addition to pressure from President Trump to clamp down on narcotics (particularly fentanyl) trafficking into the US, has prompted her to pursue a more aggressive anti-crime strategy. She has intensified high-profile arrests, drug seizures and military operations against cartels. A strong congressional majority has allowed Sheinbaum’s administration to pass institutional reforms to the Secretaría de Seguridad y Protección Ciudadana (Secretariat of Security and Civilian Protection, SSPC), which supervises public safety and security. These reforms have enhanced the SSPC’s intelligence and investigation capabilities, allowing for greater use of technology and data. There is also speculation that Sheinbaum may have made a deal with President Trump that would allow the US a greater, albeit unspecified, role in the fight against drug cartels in Mexico. When asked a few weeks ago whether he could take action against drug cartels in Mexico, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a media outlet: “All options are on the table.”
Security operations in numbers
In December 2024, authorities seized more than one ton of illicit fentanyl, a synthetic opioid drug – the largest seizure on record.
Since 1 February, President Sheinbaum has deployed 10,000 Guardia Nacional personnel to the US-Mexico border.
On 27 February, Mexican authorities handed over 29 criminal leaders to the US to face organised crime-related charges after the US designated multiple criminal groups as foreign terrorist organisations.
Since early February, security forces have dismantled dozens of clandestine drug labs in and around Culiacán, Sinaloa.
The impact thus far
These developments mark a shift from the previous administration’s sporadic security operations and suggest some early successes. Media reports indicate that factions of the Sinaloa Cartel are laying off workers and going into hiding. Sheinbaum’s administration has also highlighted a 15 percent decrease in homicides between October 2024 and February 2025 and a decline in extortion, though without providing specific figures. However, doubts remain over Mexico’s ability to weaken cartel influence, as violence persists in crime hotspots and budgetary constraints impact the sustainability of security operations. Kidnapping rose by 13 percent from December 2024 to January 2025, indicating that criminal groups continue to engage in other revenue-generating activities amid pressure on drug trafficking. Furthermore, deploying an additional 10,000 troops along the 3,145 km US-Mexico border may not be a sustainable long-term strategy against fentanyl smuggling, given the far-reaching networks of transnational organisations who control the trafficking operations. High-profile arrests can also destabilise areas by provoking retaliation by criminal groups or triggering new conflict as cartels or factions within them fight to fill the power vacuums left by senior figures. For example, since the US arrested top Sinaloa Cartel leader Ismael Zambada García in July 2024, violence in Sinaloa has intensified, with over 800 people killed.
However, doubts remain over Mexico’s ability to weaken cartel influence, as violence persists in crime hotspots and budgetary constraints impact the sustainability of security operations.’’
Outlook
Over the coming months, Sheinbaum will have to walk a tight line between fighting the cartels with potential additional assistance from the US and protecting Mexico’s sovereignty by preventing the US from taking more drastic measures, such as sending US troops to Mexican soil to take on cartels. Additionally, Sheinbaum’s administration will face challenges in sustaining the momentum of security operations amid budgetary constraints, corruption within government and law enforcement, and the adaptability of criminal groups, which have historically diversified their activities in response to government crackdowns.
