In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we look at Ukraine’s operations in Crimea as a means to undermine Russia’s critical supply lines, delve into Russia’s growing sabotage tactics deployed on mainland Europe and examine the challenges faced by President Gustavo Petro in his attempts to bring long-lasting peace to Colombia.
World news in brief
A roundup of key political violence developments globally. Read the article
Russia & CIS
Crimea under fire: Why Ukraine is targeting the peninsula
Amid weeks of intensified strikes on Russia’s naval assets, airfields, and air defence systems in Crimea, Ukraine is making headway in destabilising the critical artery. Though unlikely to lead to an all-out victory for Kyiv, undermining Russia’s positions in the strategic peninsula could have longer term implications for any future peace talks and make a more vulnerable Russia open to concessions. Already, Russia has been forced to reposition its Black Sea Fleet and rethink its supply chains or risk cutting off supplies to its forces in Ukraine. Read the article
Europe
Testing the waters: Russian grey-zone tactics in Europe
Reports of arson, sabotage and the use of GPS jamming signals across Europe have led to growing concerns over Russia’s deployment of grey-zone tactics to unsettle the people and governments of Western Europe. With little room available to overtly combat these attacks, and with Russia increasingly willing to reply on low impact tactics to sew disruption and discontent, it appears civilians may bear the brunt of frustrations of Russia’s desire to the resolve and resilience of its Europe adversaries. Read the article
Latin America
From total to partial peace: Negotiating ceasefires with Colombia’s armed groups
President Gustavo Petro’s Total Peace plan, launched in August 2022, brought with it some early successes. However, faced with increasingly splintered insurgent groups, and challenges in securing appropriate compensation and concessions to entice armed groups to surrender their weapons, the cracks in Paz Total are clear. The question now is whether these cracks can be mended and a longer lasting peace achieved in the remaining 22 months of Petro’s term. Read the article
