In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we look at the longer term prospects of unrest in France following the recent riots, unpack the ongoing civil unrest in Peru and its impacts on different sectors of the economy, and discuss the dynamics informing private military company Wagner’s continued operations in Africa.
France’s flashpoints and the ingrained drivers of unrest
Following the shooting of a teenager at a traffic stop outside Paris in late June, protests and rioting rooted in longstanding grievances erupted across France. The French government has so far been unable to effectively address a range of issues affecting citizens particularly in disadvantaged neighbourhoods. While these grievances stand, the potential for further unrest will continue to simmer.
Persistent instability: Unrest continues under Boluarte
Peru has been grappling with degrees of political instability since 2016, and frequent leadership changes have hampered government efforts to achieve meaningful reform. With large sections of the population questioning the legitimacy of the sitting president, protests continue to affect a range of sectors including tourism, agriculture, mining and retail.
Wagner after prigozhin: What Next?
The deaths of the Wagner Group’s leadership in a plane crash on 23 August leaves several unanswered questions about the future of the private military company. But Russia has benefitted from Wagner’s operations overseas, particularly in Africa. For the time being, it seems likely that Wagner’s African operations will remain largely unmoved by the evolving dynamics between Wagner and the Russian government.
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