In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we look at how the security situation has developed in the two years since the military seized power in Myanmar, consider the prospects for renewed mass civil unrest in Sri Lanka, and assess the broader implications of unrest over proposed judicial reforms in Israel.
Two years on: Myanmar’s enduring post-coup conflict
Since seizing power in a coup two years ago, Myanmar’s military government has faced ongoing resistance from armed groups through the country. With no side set to gain a decisive advantage, protracted conflict looks to be the most likely outcome for some time.
Rage & repeat: Another uprising on the cards for Sri Lanka in 2023?
While the number of protests has reduced since their peak in April 2022, persistent dissatisfaction with the economic direction of the country and continued political wrangling set the stage for simmering anti-government sentiment. Dozens of protests still take place each month, and with elections upcoming in 2023, the government faces an uphill battle in containing unrest.
Civil unrest in Israel: Is the Middle East’s only democracy under threat?
Protests related to the arrest of former President Pedro Castillo have been ongoing in Peru since December 2022. A fragile political system and deep-seated societal divisions suggest popular dissatisfaction will be difficult to placate, and the ensuing instability is prompting significant uncertainty for not only the mining sector in Peru, but also for global copper production and prices.
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