Global Risk Bulletin | September 2020

In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we look at the fallout from August’s coup in Mali, assess the prospects for a change of government in Belarus in the wake of ongoing tumult triggered by a disputed election, and delve into the aftermath of the Beirut port explosion, which prompted renewed calls for meaningful political change in Lebanon.

Greater instability in the Sahel: The Malian coup

On 18 August, members of the Malian military overthrew the sitting president and forced the resignation of the National Assembly. In this article we note, that while widespread protests in the country had been ongoing for weeks, a number of questions over Mali’s political future remain unanswered. Once a mode for reverting to civilian power has been confirmed, a new government will need to address a variety of socioeconomic challenges, while at the same time effectively respond to the escalating Islamic insurgency in the north of the country. Read the article

Clinging to power: Mass protests greet Lukashenko’s election ‘victory’

Belarussian president Alexander Lukashenko met an unprecedented wave of protests following his questionable election victory in early August. Opposition politicians are standing up to the longstanding leader, and appear to have widespread support among the general population to do so. Amid a forceful crackdown on protesters, who Lukashenko has accused of trying to stage a coup, there is significant uncertainty over the resolution to the impasse. In this article we look at how the situation in Belarus might unfold. Read the article

The STATE OF Lebanon: STUMBLING FROM ONE CRISIS TO THE NEXT

The massive explosion in Beirut port on 4 August added further to Lebanon’s extensive woes. Mass protests in the aftermath of the explosion highlighted the government’s struggles in solving a complex fiscal and monetary crisis. In this article we look at how Lebanon’s political economy has faltered in the lead-up to the explosion, and why the government’s recent resignation might not result in lasting reform. Read the article