Global Risk Bulletin | October 2020

In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we look into the maritime dispute between Greece and Turkey over gas reserves in the Mediterranean, assess the prospects for political change in Bulgaria amid widespread popular protests, and look at the broader implications of anti-lockdown protests across Europe.

Dangerous disputes in the Mediterranean: The Greece-Turkey rivalry

OA longstanding dispute between Turkey and Greece over drilling rights in the Mediterranean escalated in August, when warships from the two countries collided at sea. While the sabre-rattling that followed has since subsided, in this article we explain how the underlying dynamics remain unchanged; as a result, a miscalculation from either side could see a rapid escalation of hostilities. Read the article

Oil on the fire: Bulgaria’s ‘grand national uprising’

Daily anti-government demonstrations have been ongoing in Bulgaria since July, with protesters demanding an end to a political system they say is riddled with corruption and has worked to serve the interests of a small elite for decades. In this article we look at the prospects for systemic change in Bulgarian politics, and why protesters may find it difficult to unseat the current government. Read the article

The politics of Covid-19: Second wave of anti-lockdown protests

Following a renewed surge in Covid-19 cases in many European countries, governments have once again had to impose restrictions on activities and the movement of people. However, the socio-economic costs of curtailing economic activities are growing, and many feel further restrictions are unjustified and a threat to their livelihoods. In this article we look at how increased protests have the potential to disrupt commercial activities in many sectors, and to further escalate the spread of the virus during mass gatherings. Read the article