Global Risk Bulletin | May 2020

In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we look at how lockdowns across Europe have impacted protest movements, we discuss the latest developments in the Libyan civil war, and the growing threat of violent protest in South Africa, as the country grapples with the economic impacts of a national lockdown.

World News in Brief

We offer an overview of the world news from April 2020, covering the top stories in terrorism, war and civil unrest. This includes analysing the security environment in Yemen, protests in response to COVID-19 measures in the US, Ukraine and Chile, and the arson and vandalisation of multiple 5G telecommunications towers in the Netherlands. Read the article

Lives or livelihoods: Protests in Europe during and after lockdowns

Lockdowns to slow the spread of COVID-19 across Europe have stifled active protest movements in several countries. While restrictions on mass gatherings and other government-imposed measures on physical distancing have largely halted protests, they have not resolved the underlying grievances. We discuss how, as European nations begin to ease restrictions on personal movement, particularly where lockdown measures have caused increased economic hardship a resurgence in unrest is likely. Read the article

Turning the tide: GNA gains momentum in Libyan war

Recent gains by UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) forces in Libya’s civil war demonstrate an increase in the GNA’s military capability, but are unlikely to signal an end to hostilities in the near future. The Libyan National Army (LNA) will seek to recoup the recent losses, and a negotiated political settlement does not appear realistic. In this article we look at these recent developments, and assess the prospects for peace in the country. Read the article

Demonstrations under lockdown: The threat of increased violent protests in South Africa

With a national lockdown severely slowing down economic activity, many South Africans have suffered from a temporary loss in income, driving incidents of unrest across the country. In this article we explore some of the consequences of the lockdown, and discuss how violent unrest may develop in South Africa as long as restrictions on movement and activity remain in place. Read the article