Global Risk Bulletin | August 2019

INCLUDED IN THIS MONTH’S BULLETIN:

Sanctions and Seizures: Growing uncertainty in the Gulf amid renewed US-Iran tensions 

Since the initial May attack against four merchant vessels off the coast of Fujairah, in the Gulf of Oman, regional tensions have escalated, with subsequent attacks, delays and obstruction of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz through June and July. In this article, we explore the geopolitical drivers leading up to this escalation and consider the implications for the global economy and regional security.

Power to the People? Argentina’s Growing Anti-Austerity Movement 

Anti-austerity protests against President Macri’s fiscal reform have been ongoing since 2017 and the pressure is mounting as he seeks re-election in October of this year. Amid countrywide power blackouts and subsidy cuts, we examine the prospect and impact of widespread, grassroots-driven civil unrest in the country.

Closed for business: The commercial impacts of civil unrest in Hong Kong 

16 June saw the single largest demonstration in Hong Kong’s history, when up to two million people took to the streets to denounce a bill allowing for extraditions from the semi-autonomous city to mainland China. As the protest movement persists through August, with increasing clashes between protesters and security forces, we assess the commercial and travel implications of the unrest.