The 'super election year' is off to a turbulent start with geopolitics continuing to dominate headlines in 2024. With this in mind, how should businesses prepare for the risks already in play and the potential turmoil to come?
Listen to the First Call podcast
Recorded prior to Pakistan's February 2024 election.
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Introduction
In the first episode of our special podcast series, First Call, S-RM's Chief Executive Officer Heyrick Bond Gunning and Head of Strategic Intelligence Gala Riani dial in on the early emerging trends in 2024 and discuss what they foresee to be a tough year for businesses to navigate.
The intensity of the geopolitical scene in 2023 has carried through into 2024. Most notably has been war breaking out in the Middle East, here the regional implications of the conflict are still being grappled with as well as the wider impact on the global economy. This continued disruption is set against the backdrop of a massive election year where over 50 countries are due to head to the polls. These are just two examples of how important it is to consider geopolitical risk and its impact on your business when making key decisions in 2024. Indeed, "Geopolitical risk is something that's been on the agenda for a long time, but I think probably hasn't received the adequate resourcing within a lot of organisations that it needs" says Gala Riani.
Geopolitical risk is something that's been on the agenda for a long time, but I think probably hasn't received the adequate resourcing within a lot of organisations that it needs.
The US election
Of the 50+ elections taking place this year, the US election is certainly the most prominent. It's tipped to be especially contentious with Joe Biden and Donald Trump head-to-head once again. This long and intense election season may leave the US distracted, providing the perfect opportunity for other actors around the world to take advantage of that distraction. "It's such a critical election that you can expect the US to be quite introverted for a certain period of time" says Riani.
Coupled with the spread of disinformation, which we know is rampant in the US, accelerated by the increase in the level of online chatter that comes with an election, and exacerbated by evolving threats such as deep fakes, or similar, the US election is a 'perfect storm'. Indeed, the US is not as prepared for these kinds of threats in comparison to some of its European allies, like Sweden, Finland, or France, who have been working hard in preparation for such challenges.
It's such a critical election that you can expect the US to be quite introverted for a certain period of time.
And, it's not just the US you need to keep an eye on. There are other countries vulnerable in terms of how their elections could be influenced or disrupted by disinformation and/or cyber campaigns.
What are the other elections to watch in 2024?
Pakistan
Pakistan's elections will be interesting to watch and not just for the election itself, but also how it pans out down the line, with the jailed former prime minister Imran Khan in competition with leading candidate Nawaz Sharif who was also jailed not too long ago. Looking forward, political stability is likely to remain elusive. [Recorded prior to Pakistan's February 2024 election]
Venezuela
Venezuela's elections are worth following closely. There has been a rollback of US sanctions on the country, hinged on the political process. However, there doesn't seem to be much will on the side of Nicolás Maduro to actually forward that political process in the way that it should.
Senegal
Senegal has just postponed elections in a fashion that could trigger a constitutional crisis and potentially create a certain amount of political unrest.
India
India is important. Even though we don't think we're going to see any surprises there in terms of outcome, the emboldenment of Narendra Modi will have implications for the wider region and the world.
What should businesses keep in mind in 2024?
There's a sense that the world is moving very quickly, but we often find clients confused about where to start especially if their supply chains are complex.
It's really important to continue to track these elections and not only look at what the immediate implications are in terms of policy, but also what the secondary implications are down the line. Identifying where your pain points are is a key first step, once you've mapped those out, you can systematically look at the world and prepare for anything that might impact those points.
There's no point in trying to predict every single outcome of every single political or geopolitical event, but you can prepare. You can conduct long-term horizon scanning so that you have those early warning indicators of where the risks may appear. You might not be able to track absolutely everything, but you will be in a much better position than if you just take your eyes off the ball.
It's also important to consider how geopolitical risk impacts the cyber risk landscape and carrying out tabletop exercises is advised to to build organisational resilience. "From the the data that we've seen, out of the 500 or so incidents that we responded to in the last 12 months, if you plan and you practice and rehearse, there's around a 40% improvement in your business interruption costs" says Heyrick Bond Gunning.
For more from Gala and her team, read their latest insights or learn about about our Strategic Intelligence practice.
