Global Risk Hub | S-RM

Vol 7, 2024 | World news in brief: A round-up of key political violence developments globally

Written by Markus Korhonen | Aug 23, 2024 11:36:51 AM
Civil Unrest

Nigeria

In August, countrywide protests associated with the #EndbadGovernanceinNigeria movement spread across Nigeria, driven by various political and socioeconomic grievances, including the high cost of living. Demonstrations took place in major cities including Abuja and Lagos, while police used live ammunition to disperse protesters in several regions, with 22 people killed during the unrest. Authorities also imposed 24-hour curfews in northern states like Kano. Although the scale and frequency of the demonstrations have since decreased, likely due to the security crackdown, the underlying grievances remain unresolved, raising the potential for further protests in the coming months.

Terrorism

Somalia

On 2 August, Al Shabaab militants killed 32 people and injured at least 200 others in an attack on a hotel along Lido Beach in Mogadishu. Reports indicate that the attack began with a suicide bomber detonating an explosive device at the entrance to the hotel, before several militants stormed the building and opened fire on beachgoers. Despite a government-led counter-offensive against Al Shabaab in central and southern Somalia in 2023, the operation has stalled, and the Islamist militant group maintains the capabilities and presence to carry out high-impact attacks in the Mogadishu.

War

Russia

On 6 August, Ukrainian forces launched a cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, advancing approximately 30 km into Russian territory with limited resistance, aided by Western weapons and equipment. They have captured multiple villages and towns, including the region's administrative centre, Sudzha, and have since carried out attacks in the neighbouring Belgorod Oblast. The objectives of Ukraine’s advance remain unclear, but it has forced Russia to redeploy forces from southern Ukraine to reinforce defences. If Ukraine consolidates its position, it could gain leverage in future peace talks, especially as Russian forces continue to advance in eastern Ukraine.

Civil Unrest

United Kingdom

In late July and August, violent protests erupted across the UK following a stabbing in Southport, Merseyside, in which three minors were killed. Misinformation falsely accusing a Muslim asylum seeker of the attack circulated online, triggering riots led by the far-right English Defence League in Southport, and later spreading to towns and cities throughout the country, including Manchester, Rotherham, Belfast, Liverpool, and Plymouth. Demonstrators damaged businesses, vehicles and homes, and dozens of police officers were injured, while over 1,000 people were arrested. The demonstrations subsided amid an increased police presence throughout the country, and a swift judicial response, with numerous rioters receiving prison sentences lasting several years.

Civil Unrest

India

On 9 August, a trainee doctor was raped and murdered while working at a hospital in Kolkata, West Bengal State, triggering a series of strikes and demonstrations across the country. In the days following the attack, thousands of doctors went on strike, disrupting operations at public hospitals across the country to demand that the government implement increased safety measures for healthcare workers. On 14 August, tens of thousands of people joined marches in Kolkata, New Delhi, Hyderabad, Mumbai, and other cities to demand broader action against gender-based violence in the country. Sexual violence is common in India, and large demonstrations in response to violent attacks are likely to continue in the coming months.

Civil Unrest

Israel

On 5 August, ultra-Orthodox Jews protested outside the Tel HaShomer military base to denounce the first draft notices sent out to the community. Ultra-Orthodox Jews were previously exempt from military service in Israel, but now face mandatory conscription following a Supreme Court ruling in June 2024. Since the court order, hundreds of ultra-Orthodox Jews have participated in demonstrations in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and elsewhere, with several instances devolving into clashes with police, or attempts to storm military buildings. A very small percentage of those summoned have since complied with the draft order, with only 48 out of 900 attending scheduled pre-enlistment interviews and medical checkups. This issue will deepen existing political divisions in Israel in the coming months, exacerbating disputes over the management of the conflict in Gaza, and deepening divides between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the judiciary.

Civil Unrest, Terrorism

Colombia 

On 11 August, Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) rebels imposed an armed blockade in rural areas of the Chocó Department. The blockade followed a collapse in peace negotiations with the government on 3 August, and tensions over an alleged alliance between local military personnel and the Clan del Golfo criminal group, a prominent ELN rival. The blockade affected commercial operations, transport, and public services, and at least three people died after they were unable to reach hospitals. Humanitarian organisations have since negotiated with the rebel group to allow food and medicine to reach the area. At least nine such blockades have occurred since 2023 as territorial conflict between the ELN and Clan del Golfo has intensified. With peace talks between the ELN and the government also faltering, these dynamics will sustain insecurity and violence in the area and the wider region.

Civil Unrest

Canada

On 22 August, Canada's two largest rail companies, Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), suspended operations, locking out 9,300 engineers, conductors, and other workers ahead of a strike by rail unions. The lockout followed a collapse in negotiations with unions over wages and working conditions that have lasted several months. With CN and CPKC operating around 80 percent of Canada's rail network, the stalemate threatens severe transport disruptions to commuters in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, as well as wider commercial disruptions to agriculture, mining, construction, shipping, and other sectors in the region. Supply chains in Canada, the US, and Mexico will be significantly affected.