Civil Unrest
Bangladesh
On 1 July, students embarked on a series of protests at universities and colleges countrywide to denounce a controversial job quota system that would have reserved 30 percent of government jobs for the relatives of former freedom fighters. Then on 15 July, student demonstrations intensified after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina announced that she would not meet the protesters’ demands, leaving the decision to the courts. At least 147 people were killed in the violent clashes that followed, largely concentrated in Dhaka, and authorities imposed a curfew and restricted telecommunication services in efforts to suppress the movement. On 21 July, the Supreme Court scaled back the job quota system, and demonstrations diminished. By 29 July, student leaders called off lingering protests and called for universities to reopen, and mobile and internet services were restored. However, anti-government sentiment against Hasina’s administration has deepened, and political grievances are likely to drive further violent protests in Bangladesh in the coming months.
War
Iran
On 31 July, an Israeli airstrike hit a residential building in Tehran, killing the political chief of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, along with his bodyguard. Haniyeh was visiting Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who was sworn in the day before. Haniyeh represented Hamas in ceasefire negotiations in Qatar amid the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, and his death will likely derail talks towards an end to the war in Gaza. In addition, Israel’s attack in Tehran is likely to raise tensions between Israel and Iran, and an Iranian military response against Israel increases the potential for a direct military confrontation between the two in the coming weeks.
War
Israel
On 19 July, a Houthi drone evaded Israel’s air defences and struck an apartment building in Tel Aviv, killing one person and injuring 10 others. Israel responded by striking oil and energy facilities in the Houthi-controlled port city of Hodeidah, killing at least six people. Separately, on 27 July, a rocket attack killed 12 civilians on a football field in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israel and the US blamed Hezbollah for the attack, but the group has denied responsibility. On 30 July, Israel responded by launching an airstrike that killed Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukur, in Beirut in Lebanon. Despite frequent rhetoric to the contrary, neither Israel nor Hezbollah intend to enter into open conflict. However, such attacks serve to push the boundaries of military engagement and risk an unintended escalation, raising the potential for the Israel-Palestine conflict to widen in the coming weeks to involve regional militant groups based in Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere.
Civil Unrest
Turkey and Syria
On 30 June, violent anti-Syrian protests broke out in Kayseri Province following a case of sexual harassment that involved a Syrian national. Over the days that followed, demonstrations spread throughout the region. Rioters burned vehicles and Syrian-owned businesses, and police arrested more than 470 people. Meanwhile, counter-protests took place in northern Syria, particularly in Afrin and Aleppo, and in towns along the border with Turkey. At least seven people were killed in armed clashes with security forces, and Turkey temporarily closed four border crossings until order was restored. The unrest came amid rumours of a possible rapprochement between Turkey and Syria; however, widespread anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkey is likely to limit efforts to restore diplomatic ties between the two countries in the coming months.
Terrorism
Colombia
On 16 July, the government announced that it had suspended a ceasefire agreement with 24 factions of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) dissident group, mostly located in the southeastern and eastern regions of the country. This follows the suspension of a ceasefire with several other FARC factions in Cauca, Valle del Cauca and Nariño departments in March 2024, after the government alleged the rebel groups violated the terms of the agreement. Following the suspension in peace talks, military forces have launched offensive operations against the factions that are no longer at the negotiating table, leading to a resumption in hostilities in those regions in recent months. Peace talks with 16 other factions remain ongoing, and a ceasefire with those groups will remain in place until at least 15 October.
Civil Unrest
Venezuela
On 29 July, tens of thousands of anti-government activists demonstrated countrywide to denounce the official results of the 28 July presidential election after the National Electoral Council declared incumbent President Nicolas Maduro as the winner. The results did not appear to correspond with statistical estimates based on partial counts and other polling data that showed Maduro losing by a large margin, and multiple opposition leaders described the results as fraudulent. The largest protests have taken place in Caracas, where several thousand activists demonstrated near the Palacio de Miraflores. Security forces maintained a strong presence at the demonstrations, clashing with protesters in multiple locations; participants threw stones at police, who used tear gas to disperse the crowds. Pro-Maduro paramilitary groups have also reportedly used live ammunition on protesters. By 30 July, at least seven people had been killed and dozens of others injured in clashes in Caracas, Aragua and Yarcuy. Anti-government sentiment is widespread in Venezuela, and roadblocks, vandalism, demonstrations and subsequent clashes over grievances relating to the election result and Maduro’s policies are likely to continue in the coming months.
War
Mali
On 27 July, the Cadre stratégique permanent pour la paix, la sécurité et le développement (CSP-PSD), a coalition of Tuareg rebel groups, announced that they had killed dozens of Malian soldiers and Russian Wagner Group mercenaries during clashes near Tinzaouaten in the Kidal Region, along the Algerian border. Reports indicate that the CSP-PSD repelled an attack by government and Wagner forces on Tinzaouaten, forcing them to withdraw toward Kidal, where they were ambushed by Tuareg rebels and members of Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM). The security situation in northern Mali remains volatile, worsened by the recent withdrawal of United Nations peacekeeping forces, which has allowed Tuareg rebels and Islamist militants to consolidate territorial control in the region.
Civil Unrest
Uganda
On 23 July, police arrested dozens of protesters in Kampala during a banned demonstration against government corruption. Authorities deployed the military to the capital, and along with the police, quickly dispersed the demonstrators. A similar protest took place on 25 July, where demonstrators demanded the resignation of Parliament Speaker Anita Among for her alleged involvement in corruption, leading to several more arrests. Anti-government activists have called for further demonstrations to take place in the coming weeks. However, authorities in Uganda frequently crack down on any form of dissent, and attempts to stage sustained protests are likely to be met with a strong response from the security services.
Terrorism
France
On 26 July, unidentified assailants sabotaged France's high-speed railway network in several areas to the north, east and west of Paris. The attackers set fire to signalling cables, leading to significant disruptions in domestic and international services, with at least 250,000 passengers affected. The worst disruptions were reported on lines connecting Paris with Lille, Bordeaux, and Strasbourg. The attacks occurred on the morning of the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympic Games, which contributed to the higher passenger volumes and extensive disruptions. Although no group has claimed responsibility, authorities suspect far-left extremists were behind the attacks. The police have since arrested one person with links to a far-left group.
Civil Unrest
United Kingdom
On 30 July, at least 39 police officers were injured during riots in Southport, Merseyside. The unrest followed a vigil held in remembrance of three minors killed in a knife attack in the town on 29 July. Rioters threw bricks and bottles at a nearby mosque, set fire to police vehicles and several other cars, damaged a local store, and clashed with police. Authorities believe that members of the far-right English Defence League were involved in the violence after misinformation spread online claiming an Islamist link to the stabbing. However, the motive for the attack remains unclear, and it is not being treated as a terror-related incident.
War
Russia
In July, Ukraine carried out multiple long-range drone strikes on oil facilities across western Russia. The strikes damaged several oil depots and refineries in the Rostov and Kursk oblasts as well as Krasnodar Krai. While Ukraine continues to suffer from personnel and equipment shortages on the battlefield, it is likely to continue its campaign of long-range drone strikes on oil facilities in Russian territory. Russia's oil industry remains a crucial source of funds for its war effort through sustained earnings from sales to countries such as India.
