Global Risk Hub | S-RM

Vol 4, 2024 | World news in brief: A round-up of key political violence developments globally

Written by Markus Korhonen | May 31, 2024 10:10:35 AM
Civil unrest

New Caledonia

On 13 May, pro-independence Kanak activists rioted in Nouméa to denounce a proposed constitutional amendment allowing a larger proportion of French residents to vote in New Caledonia's provincial elections. Demonstrators attacked police officers, burned vehicles and businesses, and blockaded main roads in the city. Six people were killed in the clashes. In response, authorities closed the international airport indefinitely and declared a 12-day state of emergency, while France deployed hundreds of additional troops to the island to help restore order. French President Emmanuel Macron has delayed signing the amendment into law until the end of June and called for increased dialogue. However, tensions remain elevated, and protests and road blockades will likely persist while negotiations continue.

 

Civil Unrest

Taiwan

On 21 and 24 May, thousands of pro-government supporters protested outside the Legislative Yuan in Taipei to denounce an opposition-backed proposal that would expand parliament's investigative powers, allowing it to question and demand documents from senior military and government officials, including the president. Although the demonstrations were peaceful, political tensions escalated into physical clashes between lawmakers in parliament several days prior, on 17 May. Further protests are likely in the coming months amid deepening political divisions between the governing Democratic Progressive Party and opposition parties that control the majority of seats in the legislature.

 

terrorism 

Egypt

On 7 May, unidentified militants shot and killed an Israeli businessman in Alexandria. The Vanguard of Liberation Group for Martyr Mohamed Salah, an Egyptian extremist group, later claimed responsibility for the attack, claiming that the victim was involved with Israeli intelligence organisation Mossad. Extremist attacks targeting Israeli nationals occur occasionally in Egypt but are typically isolated. However, there has been an uptick in such incidents in recent months amid Israel’s military operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. In October 2023, for instance, a local police officer shot and killed two Israeli tourists and a local tour guide in Alexandria. 

 

Terrorism

Ecuador

On 22 May, President Daniel Noboa introduced a new state of emergency in seven provinces, including Guayas, El Oro and Santa Elena, following an increase in the number of violent crimes and murders. The state of emergency will last for 60 days. In January 2024, Noboa declared war on the country’s criminal groups, classifying 22 of them as terrorist organisations. The measure will allow security forces to enter homes and intercept communications in those provinces without authorisation. Noboa’s response has been largely successful in quelling the violence in the short term; however, it remains unclear whether his administration has the resources and congressional support to maintain this approach in the long term.

 

War

Haiti

On 20 May, the Aeroport International Toussaint Louverture in Port-au-Prince reopened after gang-related violence forced its closure for nearly three months. The closure of the airport and the main seaport had prevented basic supplies, including medicine, from entering the country and restricted foreigners from leaving Haiti. Violence has been widespread following a wave of coordinated attacks by gangs in the first five months of 2024, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry. Despite Henry’s resignation in April and the appointment of an interim prime minister, an under-resourced police force and severe political instability will drive the threat of further disruptive gang violence in the coming months.

 

Political Violence

DRC

On 19 May, the Congolese military announced it had thwarted an attempted coup in Kinshasa. Dozens of armed assailants in military uniform, aligned with the New Zaire Movement led by Christian Malanga, a formerly exiled politician, entered the capital. The group initially attacked the residence of Deputy Prime Minister Vital Kamerhe, clashing with his guards before briefly occupying the Palais de la Nation. The military intervened, killing Malanga and arresting 50 people, including three US citizens. While the situation quickly stabilised and there was no significant disruption, the failed putsch highlights the persistent political instability in the DRC and underscores the potential for further incidents of political violence in the coming months.

 

War

Sudan

In May, fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) intensified in Al Fasher, North Darfur State. The two forces continue to compete for control over Al Fasher, the last regional capital in the Darfur region under SAF command. Villages around the city have been burnt down, and hundreds of people have been killed. The UN estimates that more than 15,000 have died since the war broke out in April 2023, and over 8.6 million people have been displaced, with hundreds of thousands fleeing to El Fasher to escape fighting in other parts of Darfur.

 

Civil Unrest

Armenia

In May, thousands of people marched from Tavush Province to Yerevan, led by Archbishop Bagrat Galstanian, a church leader from the region, to denounce the ceding of territory to Azerbaijan through a bilateral border demarcation agreement. The protesters have demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during frequent demonstrations outside the parliament and blockaded the Yerevan-Gyumri highway on several occasions, causing severe disruptions. Further protests and acts of civil disobedience in Yerevan and the affected border regions are likely in the coming months as discussions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over additional border delimitations continue.

 

War

Ukraine

On 10 May, Russia launched a new offensive into the border areas of Kharkiv Oblast, capturing several villages and launching attacks on the towns of Vovchansk and Lyptsi. The aim of the operation is likely to establish a buffer zone to prevent Ukrainian shelling into Russia’s Belgorod Oblast and to draw Ukrainian forces away from other parts of the frontline. The situation has since stabilised with the arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements, and the expected influx of US military aid in the coming weeks will enhance Ukraine’s ability to prevent further Russian advances around Kharkiv. However, Ukraine’s ongoing personnel shortages, exacerbated by the deployment of forces to Kharkiv, will leave the frontlines exposed to Russian offensives in eastern and southern Ukraine over the coming months.

 

Terrorism

Slovakia

On 15 May, an armed assailant fired multiple shots at Prime Minister Robert Fico outside the Dom Kultúry in Handlová, severely injuring him. Police immediately arrested the perpetrator, a 71-year-old author and former security guard, who reportedly attacked Fico due to his administration's policies, including the government’s rejection of military aid to Ukraine, its proposal to abolish the Office of the Special Prosecutor, and its plans to exert more control over the public broadcasting agency. The attacker has been charged with attempted murder and remains in police custody, while Fico remains in hospital. The incident underscores the deep divisions in Slovakia, which remains one of Europe's most polarised countries.