political violence
Haiti
On 29 February, organised criminal gangs launched a coordinated assault in Port-au-Prince, targeting various government buildings and infrastructure to call for the ousting of Prime Minister Ariel Henry. The government declared a 72-hour state of emergency on 3 March, which was later extended until 3 April, amid continued rioting and clashes between police and gangs in the capital city. Henry announced on 11 March that his government would leave power once an interim government is appointed, successfully calming tensions in Port-au-Prince. However, a deepening power vacuum, since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, has allowed criminal gangs to take control of most of the city, elevating the threat of renewed violence if the gangs do not approve of the transition process.
political violence
Mexico
On 26 February, unidentified assailants shot and killed two political leaders who had planned to run for mayor of the Maravatío Municipality in Michoacán State. Although no groups have claimed responsibility for the attacks, they were likely perpetrated by criminal organisations seeking to influence the electoral process. Attacks targeting political leaders and civil servants have increased ahead of the local elections in June 2024, with 34 attacks occurring in February, about double the number recorded the previous month. These attacks have occurred in various parts of the country, but particularly in the states of Guerrero and Michoacán, where one third of the attacks have occurred.
political violence
South Korea
On 2 January, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung was stabbed in the neck at a news conference in Busan City. The attacker later admitted he had planned to kill Lee to prevent him becoming president. Then, on 25 January, an assailant hit a member of the National Assembly, Bae Hyun-jin, over the head with a rock in Seoul. These lone-wolf attacks have occurred months ahead of the legislative election slated for 10 April. South Korean politics are characterised by increasing polarisation along ideological and regional lines, and aggressive rhetoric, online smear campaigns, and sporadic acts of physical violence are likely to increase ahead of the April elections.
war
Yemen
On 6 March, a Houthi missile struck the Barbados-flagged True Confidence cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden. Three crew members were killed, marking the first fatal Houthi attack in the region since October 2023. The remaining crew were able to deploy lifeboats and abandoned the vessel. Over the days that followed, US and UK joint maritime forces retaliated, firing dozens of missiles on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen, killing 11 people on 11 March. Nevertheless, US-led operations have done little to deter Houthi militants, and attacks on commercial and naval vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are likely to continue while the conflict in Gaza remains ongoing.
civil unrest
India
On 13 February, thousands of unionised farmers began a march from the Haryana and Punjab states to the capital, New Delhi, to demand the government set higher crop prices. Authorities responded by blockading state border crossings around New Delhi and deploying tear gas and water cannons against the demonstrators. Over the month that followed, thousands of farmers remained encamped at the Shambhu Toll Plaza, and farmers’ unions staged intermittent attempts to resume the march to the capital. Then, on 14 March, authorities sanctioned a demonstration in New Delhi, which was attended by thousands, but remained peaceful. Related protests are likely to continue in the coming weeks, while the farmers’ demands remain unmet.
civil unrest
South Korea
From 15 February, almost 12,000 medical residents and interns at 100 teaching hospitals countrywide went on strike to protest against government plans to substantially increase the number of medical students in 2025. Demonstrators stated that authorities must first address grievances relating to salaries and working conditions, before looking to grow the sector. The government took steps to revoke striking doctors’ medical licenses, to persuade protesters to return to work, and made some concessions to doctors’ demands; however, as of mid-March, trainee doctors remained on indefinite strike, resulting in cancelled surgeries, treatment delays, and longer waiting times at major hospitals across the country.
War
Ethiopia
On 2 February, Ethiopia’s parliament approved the extension of the state of emergency in the Amhara Region. The government initially declared a six-month state of emergency on 4 August 2023, to contain the ongoing conflict between the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) and Fano paramilitary group in the region. Ongoing fighting across Amhara, including in the regional capital city, Bahir Dar, indicates that the state of emergency has had minimal impact on consolidating security in the area. In the absence of externally mediated peace negotiations between the ENDF and Fano, the conflict is likely to persist in the coming months.
terrorism
Mozambique
On 3 March, Al Sunnah militants attacked and occupied an island adjacent to the town of Quissianga, Cabo Delgado Province, and beheaded three security personnel. The incident comes amid a significant rise in Al Sunnah attacks in Cabo Delgado in the first quarter of 2024. In February, for instance, militants attacked approximately 30 villages in the region, displacing more than 100,000 people. While Rwandan and Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) forces maintain a presence in Cabo Delgado, they are primarily stationed in the north. This has left the south of the province exposed, and without a more substantial security presence, further attacks are likely in the coming months.
civil unrest
Hungary
On 9 February, thousands of demonstrators rallied outside the Belügyminisztérium to demand President Katalin Novak's resignation due to her involvement in granting a special pardon to an individual complicit in a child sexual abuse case. Novak resigned the following day and the former justice minister and former government minister, who were also involved in the matter, resigned from their positions shortly thereafter. Then, on 16 February, tens of thousands of people demonstrated to call for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Antal Rogán, the head of the Prime Minister's Cabinet Office, to resign, too. Further anti-government demonstrations in the country are likely in the coming months.
civil unrest
Europe
Throughout February, agricultural workers across Europe protested to denounce European Union (EU) regulations which they perceive as detrimental to the agricultural sector. These include environmental and agricultural regulations intended to fight climate change, and legislation allowing cheaper non-EU food imports into the bloc. Agricultural workers blockaded major roads and border crossings in several countries, including Belgium, Poland, France, and Spain, which prompted significant disruptions to traffic and commercial activities. Further protests by agricultural workers are likely in the months leading up to the EU parliamentary elections in June.
civil unrest
Russia
In February, police arrested over 400 people participating in demonstrations condemning the death of opposition activist Alexei Navalny in detention on 16 February in more than 35 cities, including Moscow and St Petersburg. An additional 100 people were detained in similar protests following his funeral in early March. While there is potential for further sporadic opposition-led demonstrations in Russia, especially following the March presidential election, security forces are likely to crack down on any form of dissent, and widespread demonstrations against the government are unlikely.
terrorism
Russia
On 22 March, four assailants killed at least 137 people during a terror attack at Moscow's Crocus City Hall. Armed with automatic weapons, the assailants shot security staff at the entrance and then opened fire on attendees in the lobby and main hall. The attackers also set fire to part of the venue, causing significant property damage. Russian authorities arrested 11 individuals, including all four gunmen later identified as Tajik nationals, in connection with the incident. The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack, a claim verified by US intelligence, which had previously warned of an imminent attack on large gatherings in Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed the attack was carried out by Islamist militants, but also claimed the attackers had links to Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities have denied these allegations, and there is currently no evidence to support Putin’s claim.
