Travel security threats in Sub-Saharan Africa remain influenced by the region's complex political and security dynamics, with escalating conflicts in Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Sudan, and the Sahel posing risks of piracy, kidnappings, and political evacuations.
Established criminal networks in major economies like South Africa, Nigeria, and Mozambique continue to fuel extortion and kidnapping threats, while political instability and suppression of civil liberties heighten the risk of wrongful detention, particularly for journalists in several parts of the region.
Regional Highlights
Regional kidnap trends
South Africa and Nigeria account for the bulk of reported kidnapping cases across the continent. In South Africa, reported cases rose sharply from 6,000 in 2020 to over 16,000 in 2024, as criminal groups exploit police weaknesses stemming from understaffing and underfunding, as well as corruption. Kidnappers are increasingly targeting local businesses and employees, with incidents spreading from urban centres like Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Durban into rural areas, including the Eastern Cape.
In Nigeria, Islamist militants and separatist groups pose a significant kidnapping threat in the northeast and southeast, respectively, while bandit groups are responsible for most abductions in the Middle Belt and northern regions. The scale of the problem is underscored by recent statistics which show over 7,000 people abducted across the country between July 2023 and June 2024, reflecting an environment increasingly characterised by impunity. High unemployment rates, particularly in rural areas, and the limited authority of security forces in these regions remain key factors behind this trend. Most victims are locals; however, employees of local and foreign companies are frequently targeted, particularly in the Middle Belt.
In addition, armed groups across the region frequently resort to kidnapping to fund their operations and foreign travellers remain attractive targets due to their perceived higher value among armed groups. For instance, Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which operates across the Sahel, has frequently targeted foreign nationals in Mali, particularly humanitarian workers and NGO staff. With many of the region’s ongoing conflicts unlikely to ease over the next 12 months, the kidnapping threat to travellers in these areas is likely to persist into 2025.
Regional maritime security
Maritime security has been a long-standing concern in both the Gulf of Guinea and offshore Somalia. In recent years, the Gulf of Guinea has witnessed a significant decline in piracy, with 22 incidents recorded in 2023 compared to 84 in 2020. Maritime crime persists in regional anchorages such as Takoradi, Ghana, and occasional piracy occurs in Nigeria’s Niger Delta, yet offshore piracy incidents have markedly decreased. This improvement is largely attributed to enhanced international naval operations, along the coast as well as an increase in less risky onshore illicit activities by criminal groups, particularly in Nigeria, such as oil bunkering.
In contrast, the end of 2023 and early 2024 saw a resurgence of piracy off the coast of Somalia. Onshore dynamics driving piracy cases in previous years remain largely unaddressed. These include the presence of well-armed criminal groups in Somalia’s coastal regions and unresolved grievances, such as high unemployment among Somali fishers, exacerbated by illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing off the coast. Additionally, the shift in shipping lanes caused by ongoing Yemeni Houthi missile strikes and the redeployment of UK and US naval vessels to the Red Sea led to commercial vessels transiting closer to the Somali coast, creating a naval security vacuum that piracy groups have exploited. While increased patrols by Turkish and Indian naval forces have mitigated some of these concerns, sporadic piracy activity persists. For instance, in December 2024, heavily armed pirates boarded and captured a Chinese fishing vessel off the Puntland coast, taking 18 crew members hostage. With ongoing security concerns both onshore and offshore in Somalia, sporadic attacks are likely to continue into 2025, particularly in the first quarter amid calmer seas following the monsoon season.
Threats to journalists in Nigeria and Kenya
Sustained political instability and the suppression of civil liberties continue to endanger journalists across Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2024, one notable trend has been the assault and detention of journalists covering recent protests in Kenya and Nigeria as both governments sought to implement unpopular economic reforms. The International Press Institute (IPI) documented over a dozen assaults and detentions of journalists by police during protests against planned tax reforms in Kenya in June. Similarly, over 56 journalists were targeted during the #EndBadGovernance demonstrations in Nigeria in August.
These incidents underscore the regression of press freedom in both countries. The non-governmental organisation Reporters Sans Frontières (RSF) noted that the targeting of journalists during the Nigerian protests reached unprecedented levels since President Bola Tinubu took office in 2022. Meanwhile in Kenya, the country's ranking in the World Press Freedom Index fell from 69th in 2022 to 116th in 2023, reflecting the worsening situation; and, the RSF noted that there have been limited efforts by Kenyan authorities to investigate security personnel frequently accused of assaulting or arresting journalists. With persistent socioeconomic grievances in both countries, further protests are likely in the coming year. Consequently, there will be heightened scrutiny of the authorities’ treatment of journalists during periods of unrest.
Journalist safety in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Guinea: In December 2024, police detained the editor-in-chief of an independent investigative journalism outlet; and, in January 2024, a French journalist was detained while investigating alleged corruption in the national petroleum company.
- Sudan: At least 13 journalists have been killed in Sudan since the start of the conflict in April 2023.
- Mozambique: In November 2024, authorities briefly detained two South African journalists working for a Nigerian news station covering the countrywide protests following the general election.
- Nigeria: In August 2024, 56 journalists were arrested or harassed by security forces during the #EndBadGovernance demonstrations.
- Kenya: In June 2024, over a dozen journalists were assaulted or detained during protests against the government’s planned tax reforms.
