The release of Marc Fogel from Russian detention in February came as the new US administration ramped up efforts to secure the return of detained Americans held abroad and recalibrate its approach to Russia. Richard Gardiner examines how these policy shifts under President Donald Trump could shape the future of wrongful detentions of US nationals in Russia.
In February 2025, Russia released Marc Fogel, a US national wrongfully detained since 2021, in exchange for Russian national Alexander Vinnik. The swap, brokered by US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy and close associate, Steve Witkoff, took place just over a month after Trump’s inauguration, amid US efforts to improve relations with Russia and the administration’s stated goal of prioritising the release of hostages and wrongfully detained US nationals across the world. As broader bilateral relations evolve, so too have the wrongful detention dynamics for US nationals in Russia
The politics of detention
Russia has long used wrongful detention – where individuals are held under duress, typically by a foreign government – as a tool to advance its foreign policy agenda. By applying vague and broad domestic laws to justify arrests, the Kremlin has detained Western nationals, particularly those from the US, under the pretext of legal violations. With strict control over the judiciary, these detentions serve as leverage in negotiations, allowing Russia to push for concessions such as sanctions relief, diplomatic influence, or the release of its own citizens held abroad.
Trump’s push to secure the return of detained US nationals across the world and his desire to improve US-Russia relations – along with Putin’s willingness to reciprocate – helped pave the way for the recent exchange. US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz called the release a “show of good faith” and a sign of Russia’s interest in broader bilateral cooperation. Yet the move also highlighted how detained US nationals remain valuable bargaining chips for Russia, especially as rapprochement efforts advance, and if Trump pursues further prisoner releases.
US nationals in Russian detention
At least 10 US nationals remain in Russian detention, including Ksenia Karelina, Stephen James Hubbard, Robert Gilman, Gordon Black, and Joseph Tater. However, only Karelina and Hubbard are currently designated as wrongfully detained, enabling US authorities to take a more active role in securing their release. With Trump prioritising efforts to bring detained US nationals home, there is potential for more of the remaining detainees to receive wrongful detention status in the future.
- Ksenia Karelina: Karelina, a dual US national, was detained in Yekaterinburg in February 2024, and was later found guilty of treason for having donated USD 50 to a US-based charity that supports Ukraine. In February 2025, the US State department determined Karelina had been wrongfully detained.
- Stephen James Hubbard: Russian forces arrested Hubbard when they took control of the town of Izium in eastern Ukraine in August 2022. A Russian court sentenced Hubbard to 10 years in prison for serving as a mercenary for Ukraine. Hubbard was designated as wrongfully detained by the US in January 2025.
A good deal?
Trump’s framing of the Fogel exchange as a fair deal for Russia underscores his pragmatic approach towards foreign policy, and points to the possibility of further exchanges provided both leaders see it as mutually beneficial. While Putin has much to gain from future exchanges, such as additional releases of Russians detained in the US, there is a clear upside for Trump too. Domestically, Trump has consistently portrayed himself as a president who delivers clear, swift results, and securing the release of individuals detained in countries like Russia provides him with the opportunity to achieve such outcomes. The rapid negotiations behind Fogel’s release will likely serve as a blueprint for future talks, with Trump relying on envoys like Witkoff for direct engagement with Russian officials, over traditional State Department channels that have typically involved drawn out negotiations.
Trump’s framing of the Fogel exchange as a fair deal for Russia underscores his pragmatic approach towards foreign policy, and points to the possibility of further exchanges provided both leaders see it as mutually beneficial.’’
While strained US-Russia relations have not necessarily prevented prisoner exchanges during previous administrations, recently improved ties and reduced suspicion of one another’s motives would likely facilitate smoother negotiations. Better US-Russia relations would also serve as a deterrent against future detentions as Putin would have more to lose. For instance, since the start of the Trump administration, the US has halted offensive cyber and information operations against Russia, while the US Attorney General has also disbanded efforts to seize Russian oligarchs' assets. Consequently, a sustained thaw in US-Russia ties would raise the stakes for Putin, making further detentions less beneficial than under previous US governments.
Cautious optimism
These are promising signs for US nationals still detained in Russia, and the risk of further detentions could decline if US-Russia relations continue to improve. However, caution is still warranted. A sudden breakdown in ties could leave Putin with little to lose by resuming detentions. In fact, the value of detained US nationals may have increased, given Trump’s demonstrated willingness to actively negotiate for their releases worldwide. Consequently, as the bilateral relationship continues to evolve, staying informed on foreign policy developments will remain as critical as ever for US nationals considering travel to Russia.
