As the US approaches the November election, immigration and border security remain at the forefront of policy debates, and candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris must navigate growing public frustration about perceived migrant numbers. Erin Drake discusses the potential consequences of a tougher US approach to immigration on Latin America.
Across the US, polls show growing support for stricter immigration policies among voters. Both Democratic and Republican voters have shifted towards a tougher stance on migration into the US from Latin American countries facing deteriorating economic conditions and insecurity. As an increasingly salient political issue and rallying point for both Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, both have sought to emphasize their track records and visions for addressing migration, and both look set to adopt a more stringent policy stance.
This could have significant implications not only for countries with larger numbers of migrants looking to enter the US, but also for wider regional stability. With many origin and transit countries experiencing political turmoil and instability, strengthened immigration restrictions could bode ill for regional governments already facing resource strains and other challenges.
Harris
Carrots and sticks
Harris is largely expected to continue her predecessor’s approach. She will likely maintain the 2021 Root Causes strategy which Biden tasked her with spearheading, tackling drivers of migration from the Northern Triangle countries of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, including governance and corruption issues, economic insecurity, and violence. Harris has had some success leading this initiative, with US corporations pledging to invest around USD 5.2 billion in Central America since 2021, although her critics have attributed periodic declines in migration from these countries to various regional factors rather than Harris’s role.
Harris will also likely maintain Biden initiatives for strengthening border security, and enact periodic executive orders in response to any surges in migrant crossings, similar to Biden’s June 2024 order to temporarily suspend processing asylum claims at the Mexico-US border. During the campaign, Harris has repeatedly stated a desire to resurrect a bipartisan border bill that failed earlier this year following opposition from Trump, aimed at increasing funding for border security, and providing for emergency restrictions on unauthorised crossings should these surpass a certain threshold.
trump
Zero tolerance
Trump’s approach will represent a significantly more restrictive immigration agenda, including reinstating his first term policies, finishing constructing of a wall along the US-Mexico border, and pursuing initiatives like the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), requiring migrants from Latin American countries to wait in Mexico while claims are processed in the US. Trump has also promised mass deportations of around one million migrants carried out by the military and National Guard, constructing more Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention facilities, and mandating vetting processes with the aim of ideologically screening individuals for potential sympathies towards militant groups. Trump’s vice-presidential nominee, Ohio senator JD Vance, has also signalled the desire to tax remittances to further disincentivise migration.
A regional fallout
Hardened US immigration and border security policies will have a knock-on impact on regional stability in Latin America, contributing to existing economic and security challenges, as well as adverse effects on US diplomatic relations with affected countries.
Economic repercussions
The US represents the largest source of remittances for many Latin American countries, particularly those in Central America, and countries deeply reliant on remittances could see local economies severely affected. While some countries like Mexico (where in 2023, remittances accounted for around USD 63 billion), which have more diversified economies, may be able to absorb some of this impact, the likes of El Salvador and Honduras could see a decline in GDP, and associated challenges for their governments already dealing with substantial economic issues like rising inflation.
Remittances as percentage of GDP (2023)
Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit, Inter-American Development Bank
Returning migrants may also strain local labour markets, driving down wages amid increased labour supply, and governments could face overwhelmed welfare systems with little means to accommodate growing numbers of unemployed individuals. This may be more acute under a Trump administration, which has previously frozen aid – including USD 500 million in aid to the Northern Triangle – in response to local governments’ perceived failures to stem migration to the US.
Political instability and insecurity
More restrictive US immigration policy will add another challenge for regional governments, which are already seeing political stability become more precarious as they struggle to manage public frustrations and humanitarian priorities. The crisis in Venezuela has driven over 2.5 million migrants into Colombia, with Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Brazil, Argentina and Panama taking in a further 3 million. While initially welcoming, public opinion has grown more hostile, driving anti-migrant protests in Chile and Colombia, and anti-immigrant violence in Brazil. In Mexico, migrants have marched in the thousands to protest worsening conditions in detention centres. Given already high levels of unrest and anti-government sentiment in countries including Colombia, Argentina and Chile over unemployment and cuts in welfare subsidies, these governments could face mounting public anger and associated instability.
Fewer options for emigration to the US and poor local employment opportunities could contribute to increased engagement in illicit markets as people gravitate towards activities like illegal mining or drug trafficking to sustain themselves. This also creates opportune conditions for gang recruitment. Many prospective US migrants will continue to seek illegal routes of entry, exposing them to exploitation by criminal organisations and ‘coyote’ traffickers who charge exorbitant fees to facilitate crossings. Mexican cartels also typically kidnap migrants for ransom, forced labour and drug trafficking purposes, and these dynamics threaten to exacerbate existing crime and violence in areas like Mexico’s northern industrial zone, where many foreign and US companies operate.
A complex crisis
The trajectory and implications of changing regional migration dynamics remain uncertain, and much depends on the outcome of the US presidential election. The nature and expectations of US policies will set the tone for collaborative efforts. Meanwhile, other US policies that influence migration – such as the administration’s international sanctions regimes and approach to the Venezuela crisis – alongside Latin American governments’ own abilities to manage their borders, visa policies, and address root causes, further complicates the regional landscape.
Whether Harris or Trump takes office, Latin America will likely see a knock-on impact as the US hardens its stance towards migration, and governments already dealing with unrest, socio-economic and security challenges may well see these pressures exacerbated in the coming years.
