The deployment of thousands of North Korean personnel to the Russia-Ukraine conflict marks a significant development in the nearly three-year war. Richard Gardiner examines how this involvement could impact not only the conflict itself, but also broader geopolitical dynamics in the region.
In October, North Korea deployed thousands of troops to Russia in support of its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. This development marks the deepening of ties between the two countries, which have strengthened considerably since the start of the conflict. While this move signals that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to continuing the conflict, including recapturing Ukrainian held territory in Russia, the implications of North Korea’s involvement will likely extend far beyond the battlefield, exacerbating an already fragile regional security environment in the Korean Peninsula.
Russia stands to benefit significantly from its partnership with North Korea. Despite Russian forces making steady territorial advances in eastern Ukraine in recent months, and regaining ground in parts of the Kursk Oblast, these gains have come at a heavy cost. UK military sources estimate that October 2024 was the deadliest month of the war for Russia, with 1,500 soldiers killed or injured. The addition of North Korean forces – including 1,500 soldiers from its Special Operations Forces – offers a way to offset battlefield losses while avoiding the politically sensitive move of initiating another round of domestic mobilisations. Even if North Korean troops’ involvement in active combat is limited, assigning them to logistical or support roles could also free up Russian soldiers for frontline duties.
Their lack of battlefield experience and potential communication difficulties due to language barriers suggest potential challenges in combat operations. And if Russia employs North Korean troops in infantry-led assaults, a common feature of Russia’s tactics, heavy casualties could further diminish their strategic value and, in the longer term, their military capabilities on the home front.
While North Korea faces significant risks by taking an increasingly active role in the conflict, it also has much to gain, including the opportunity to acquire much-needed combat experience after having skirted conflict since the Korean War of 1950–1953. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war’s emphasis on advanced electronic warfare systems and extensive use of drones will provide North Koreanleaders with an opportunity to boost and adapt their own capabilities. Gathering intelligence on Ukraine’s Western-supplied weapons could also help integrate these lessons into their own military doctrine, a move that could prove critical in preparing for a potential confrontation with their similarly equipped adversary, South Korea.
North Korea’s recent constitutional change, officially designating South Korea as a “hostile state,” along with its increasingly aggressive rhetoric, underscores escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. A potentially battle-hardened military, armed with advanced Russian weaponry and bolstered by security guarantees from the Kremlin, could embolden North Korea to adopt a more assertive posture. This risk is heightened by Pyongyang’s efforts to reduce its reliance on China, which has traditionally tempered North Korea’s provocations to maintain stability in the region. In contrast, Russia appears less inclined to contain such tensions.
Seoul immediately demanded the withdrawal of North Korean forces from Russia and threatened to provide direct military aid to Ukraine - a step it has so far refrained from taking due to its longstanding policy against supplying weapons to countries engaged in conflict. Strong public opposition and Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has since led South Korea to adopt a more cautious, wait-and-see stance to the president-elect’s position, with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s office softening its earlier claims to indicate it will “coordinate with our ally.” Indeed, Trump’s anticipated approach to ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiations may view increased South Korean military support for Ukraine as an obstacle rather than an asset.
The impact of North Korean troops’ involvement will depend on the nature of their deployment, including how many combatants will see frontline action, and whether they will be utilised in Ukraine or confined to operations in the Kursk region.’’
Despite the escalatory nature of North Korean forces entering the Kursk battlefield, the reaction from Ukraine’s Western partners was initially muted. While NATO strongly condemned the development, it was only in mid-November that US President Joe Biden authorised the belated use of long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) in Russian territory. With reports suggesting that North Korea may expand the number of troops deployed to Russia to 100,000, the Biden administration likely views this move as an opportunity to boost Ukraine’s capabilities before Biden leaves office, and dissuade Pyongyang from further increasing personnel numbers. The US decision to permit ATACMS strikes in Russian territory also prompted the UK to authorise Ukraine’s use of long-range Storm Shadow missiles to strike North Korean forces.
However, Donald Trump’s victory introduces significant uncertainty over the continuity of US policy toward the conflict, and into Europe’s own decision-making. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, recognise the need for taking greater responsibility for Europe’s own defence, including an increased military contribution to Ukraine. Yet – much like South Korea - the continent’s continued reliance on the US security partnership will affect its ability to act independently in response to both the Ukrainian conflict and North Korea’s deepening involvement.
Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly deepened ties between South Korea and NATO. Both have emphasised the interconnected nature of European and Asia-Pacific security, recognising that instability in one region can affect the other. North Korea’s direct involvement in the war could further solidify this alignment out of necessity, but also presents opportunities for closer collaboration in the future, such as enhanced military interoperability, expanded intelligence sharing, and strengthened cyber defence capabilities.
While the immediate battlefield impact of North Korean forces remains uncertain, the geopolitical implications of their deployment are already becoming apparent. The potential arrival of thousands more North Korean troops in Russia indicates that as long as the conflict continues, ties between Russia and North Korea will likely remain strong despite efforts by Ukraine’s Western allies to prevent this.
As for US policy, although president-elect Trump has promised a swift resolution to the conflict, the combination of a resurgent Russian army in eastern Ukraine, and increasingly interconnected geopolitical and security dynamics between the Euro-Atlantic and Asia-Pacific regions, suggests that achieving such a resolution will be far from straightforward.