Pakistan’s 8 February election fell short of its objective – to provide leadership stability to the country which is facing an economic and political crisis. The elections have been shrouded with criticism, both domestically and internationally, since the country’s parliament was dissolved in August 2023.
Elections were initially postponed through a swift move initiated by Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N (PMLN) to commission the redrawing of electoral boundaries to provide his party with a political advantage. To further aid the PMLN’s electoral success, the widely popular former prime minister Imran Khan was prevented from contesting the general election due to his arrest in August 2023 and multiple charges of corruption and espionage. Members of Khan’s party – Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) – were also banned from running in the election under the party name or symbol. Despite the poor odds, preliminary results indicate that independent candidates linked to PTI secured 93 seats, making it the largest party in parliament. The army-backed Pakistan Muslim League-N (PMLN) only won 77 seats, and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) trailed behind with 54 seats. Of course, military support in Pakistan is prone to shifts. At least one of Sharif's three previous prime ministerial terms ended in his ousting by the military. Khan, similarly, came into power in 2018 as a strong ally of the military, but his attempts to sideline the military created a window of opportunity for Sharif’s PMLN to re-engage military support and facilitate Khan’s ouster in 2022.
The election results have left the country in disarray. As no party managed to secure a majority, Khan’s PTI, and Sharif’s PMLN are in a contest to form a coalition government. Sharif is currently engaged in talks with the PPP, which if successful, would return Pakistan under the outgoing government which has been in place since Imran Khan was ousted. The PTI is currently resisting coalition negotiations and is instead contesting the election results. With the vote counting process marred by delays, a mobile network blackout and other alleged irregularities, the PTI has accused the government and Election Commission of widespread vote-rigging that prevented the party from winning at least 70 further seats – which would have definitely delivered the PTI a majority. The party has consequently launched legal challenges, which could embroil the PMLN and Election Commission in lengthy legal battles, and called for its supporters to protest outside election commission offices in constituencies where voter rigging has been alleged. Against this backdrop, it could be some time before any party manages to form a government at a time when the country is facing immediate challenges from three fronts; economic, security and political.
Pakistan’s economy is facing one of its worst crises
Poor policy choices combined with moderate global growth, aftershocks from severe flooding in 2022 and the Covid-19 pandemic, have caused Pakistan’s growth to slow, poverty to increase, and brought the country to the brink of a debt default. While Pakistan avoided default in June 2023 with the help of a credit facility from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country’s foreign debt reliance and economic malaise have widened considerably – with growing impact on living standards and businesses. Without a stable government in place to implement IMF-prescribed reforms, further credit from the IMF is likely to face delays and in turn worsen Pakistan’s economic challenges.
Security issues are rife as well
Since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, attacks by Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – also known as the Pakistani Taliban – in the northwest of Pakistan have increased. In 2023, the TTP were involved in around 150 attacks in Pakistan killing more than 1,500 people, a 50 percent increase from 2021. Peace and ceasefire negotiations with the TTP have failed repeatedly, preserving the security risk. Afghanistan is not the only source of border tensions for Pakistan. In January, Iran and Pakistan exchanged cross-border missile strikes in the Balochistan region, with each side targeting separatist militants allegedly harboured by the other. Officials quickly agreed to de-escalate tensions, but the episode revealed a lack of cooperation between the two countries, which if left unaddressed, preserves the risk for unresolved tensions to escalate into frequent and increasingly violent skirmishes across the border. While the military provides primary protection across Pakistan’s borders, civilian governments are responsible for strategically deterring and managing cross-border relations – an important undertaking that could be overlooked or mismanaged by a government embroiled in political challenges.
Politically, the country is facing perhaps the biggest challenge yet to the status quo
Never before in Pakistan’s history has a politician experienced such electoral success without the backing of the military – and, more importantly, from behind bars. Khan and the PTI’s loyal base of supporters were apparently immune to military and ruling party tactics of opposition marginalisation, protester arrests and long prison sentences against its leaders. The results have also illustrated that Khan’s strategy of preaching reform and dismantling military structures has resonated deeply with voters.
Even if Sharif emerges victorious on election technicalities or manages to form a coalition government, he will face serious political challenges, the hardest being establishing legitimacy. Three immediate factors stand in the way of Sharif winning the people’s remit. Firstly, his party’s lack of adherence to democratic processes given that the election has been criticised as one of the least credible in Pakistan’s history. Secondly, the PMLN’s poor economic track record - the coalition government led by PMLN in 2022 after Khan’s ouster was deeply unpopular and blamed for failing to address an economic crisis that has battered the country and sent inflation to record highs. Finally, with any incoming government facing the challenge of a 77 seat strong PTI opposition in parliament and PTI supporters willing and able to stage disruptive anti-government protests, governance and reform will be no easy feat.
Looking forward, political stability will remain elusive. The country will continue to be mired by political battling, marginalisation tactics and short-term initiatives, which will weigh on the resource rich, nuclear-armed country of 240 million for the foreseeable future.
