Many are hopeful that the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)’s 20 December vote will serve as another peaceful election for the central African powerhouse. The 2019 ballot had ushered in a largely peaceful change from the long serving Joseph Kabila regime to the administration of then-opposition leader, Felix Tshekedi. Now, with Tshekedi’s second term hopes matched with those of equally optimistic contenders, the upcoming election will be hotly contested. Regardless of the ultimate winner, however, there are key issues underpinning the DRC’s political and security landscape that will be of global relevance in the post-election context.
Cobalt critical
The DRC is the world’s largest producer of cobalt. These and other critical mineral reserves make the country an important player in both the global technology race and the energy transition. While the main election contenders, including Tshekedi, mining mogul Moise Katumbi and former oil and gas heavyweight Martin Fayulu, have all flagged attracting foreign investment to the extractives sector as part of their mandates, the form this takes will very much depend on the president of the day. Tshekedi offers policy continuity for investors albeit one that seeks to carve out a greater stake for state-owned mining group Gecamines, but while Fayulu has said he would not seek a renegotiation of key mining concessions, both he and Katumbi could push for greater change in the key sector.
The big clean up
The DRC’s extractive sector is plagued by corruption, extortion and alleged human rights abuses. With growth for the sector an important pillar for all presidential candidates, there is a clear desire to clean up practices at mining sites and provide foreign companies a less risky investment destination. Yet, this is no easy task. A 2022 Global Witness report labelled minerals sourced from the DRC’s North Kivu and South Kivu provinces as ‘conflict minerals’ owing to the ongoing insurgencies there, and cobalt mining has been increasingly linked to labour violations, including forced labour, child labour and unsafe working conditions. The delicate balance between the world’s growing demand for critical minerals and growing global demands for better protection of human rights and responsible social practices is destined to play out in the DRC and will need to be managed by a leader up for the task.
Regional (de)stabiliser
Although conflict is not new to the DRC, the later years of Tshekedi’s first term have seen a rise in violence in the eastern part of the country. Tshekedi’s military siege of the region did little to address the violence and served to aggravate the human rights situation in the east. Now, in a region where over 120 separate rebel groups operate, one main player – the M23 – has recently taken centre stage, stepping up their armed campaign. The Congolese government has long alleged that M23 enjoys the support of Rwanda, and any further escalation in the conflict in the east will see a further deterioration in relations between the two countries and risks regional stability in central Africa.
