On 21 April, Ecuadorians voted in a referendum to decide on 11 questions concerning security, employment contracts, and international arbitration.
Amid a generally positive public perception of President Daniel Noboa’s ongoing crackdown on proliferating gang violence, preliminary results show that voters overwhelmingly supported nine security-related questions, including stricter gun controls near prisons, and more severe punishments for crimes like kidnapping and terrorism financing. Only two questions – one surrounding changes to the Labor Code and another dealing with international arbitration in investment disputes - have reportedly been rejected. While the referendum underscores Noboa’s popular mandate to reign in Ecuador’s organised crime landscape as per his campaign promises, there remain hurdles to the president’s agenda that may yet see his security policies challenged, and his popularity decline ahead of the February general 2025 elections.
With powerful transnational cartels also unlikely to willingly relinquish their growing foothold in Ecuador, this drives the possibility of sustained clashes between rival gangs and with security forces in the coming months."
Sustained violence
As Noboa looks towards formalising certain security policies per the referendum results, concerns remain over whether an ongoing ‘state of internal armed conflict,’ declared in January, will simply beget higher levels of violence. For example, the referendum mandates a permanent military presence along routes leading to prisons, and provides for combined military and police patrols in affected areas. However, incidents of gang retaliation in recent months, beginning with the takeover of a state news station during a live broadcast in January 2024, and followed by political assassinations and civilian casualties, suggest that an overly-militarised approach could drive an escalation in the current security crisis. And with powerful transnational cartels also unlikely to willingly relinquish their growing foothold in Ecuador, this drives the possibility of sustained clashes between rival gangs and with security forces in the coming months. Public support for Noboa’s crackdown may quickly evaporate among both the civilian population and commercial operators, particularly if violence is prolonged, impeding daily business activities and prompting sustained insecurity.
Funding challenges
Questions also remain over how security measures will be funded and sustained in the longer term. Enhancing the role of the armed forces in policing activities and prisons, and cracking down on trafficking operations may break gangs’ strongholds over correctional facilities that have acted as sanctuaries and headquarters for prominent gang leaders. However, the Finance Ministry estimates that feeding and supplying over 15,000 soldiers currently deployed in Ecuador’s cities and countryside will cost over USD 1 billion in 2024. With a struggling economy, it is unclear if Ecuador will have the budgetary capabilities to maintain such measures indefinitely. Noboa has already implemented a tax hike to fund security measures, although this could further hinder his prospect for re-election, especially if he is required to implement further austerity measures in light of an anticipated IMF deal.
With a struggling economy, it is unclear if Ecuador will have the budgetary capabilities to maintain such measures indefinitely"
International criticism
Noboa’s security crackdown has garnered criticism due to human rights concerns, and he has faced international outcries over his decision to raid the Mexican embassy and detain former vice president and fugitive Jorge Glas. As the government looks to boost a struggling economy and promote Ecuador as a stable, investment-friendly destination with vast mining resources, uncertainty surrounding how security reforms will play out over the coming months could deter cautious investors wary of Noboa’s seeming willingness to overstep diplomatic and democratic norms in his pursuit of regaining control over Ecuador’s security environment.
Balancing act
With Noboa needing to manage security challenges, economic growth, Ecuador’s international profile, and his own popularity ahead of February 2025, he faces a difficult balancing act. Any indication that his security strategy is failing, or that he is neglecting his economic promises and responsibilities, could negatively affect his domestic popularity and associated support for his policies, hindering their implementation.
Over the coming months, the trajectory of Ecuador’s security landscape remains uncertain – if successful, Ecuador could begin the process of recovering its title of one of the safest countries in the region. However, if unsuccessful, Noboa’s security crackdown – and political tenure – may be short-lived as local and transnational gangs continue their efforts to grow Ecuador as a prominent logistics hub.
