Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened a “worthy response” to Ukraine’s daring incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast from 6 August. Not since the Second World War has another country occupied Russian territory, and Russia will be certain to view this latest development with significant unease.
Ukraine’s move looked to have taken almost everyone by surprise. The minimal resistance the raiding forces encountered across the border suggests Russia had prepared only minimally for this eventuality. While Ukraine had in 2023 and again in early 2024 carried out brief raids into the Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts, these were short-lived and small-scale. On the contrary, the August attack has involved at least 1,000 Ukrainian troops, possibly even three times that, and made use of western equipment including German-made Marder infantry fighting vehicles and American Stryker and M113 armoured personnel carriers. Russia’s ignoring of the observable troop build-up ahead of the incursion has proven costly, with Ukrainian forces since advancing some 30 km inside Russia.
Ukraine’s western backers appear to have similarly been caught off guard, possibly kept intentionally in the dark to minimise any compromises to the operation’s integrity. Indeed, discussing this latest operation with their allies could have led to unwanted leaks, or to western attempts to dissuade Ukraine from this course of action. Some western nations, notably the US, have been hesitant in giving the green light to any Ukrainian efforts to target Russia within its own borders – airing the plans for the incursion too widely beforehand could have proved awkward for Ukraine.
Ukraine will know that this move is risky. On the one hand, it puts Ukraine on the front foot and will force Russia to deploy some of its forces to contain any further forays into its territory. But by directing its strategic reserves to the attack at a time when its eastern defences are stretched thin may provide a window for Russia to press its manpower advantage there for further gains.
Ukrainian officials have remained tight-lipped about the operation and its motives, though President Volodymyr Zelensky has now at least acknowledged that Ukrainian troops are fighting inside Russia. Given Russia’s recent (albeit slow and costly) advances in eastern Ukraine, putting the pressure on Russia to react, for a change, may be motive enough. The involvement of western equipment in the attack also tests Russia’s assertions about what it might interpret as an unacceptable escalation in the war, in this case the west supplying weapons that are used to threaten Russian territorial integrity. But Russia has claimed countless “red lines” over the course of the war, several of which have subsequently been broken without major repercussions, and Ukraine may look at this as another opportunity to undermine Russia’s narrative about what is and isn’t acceptable in the parameters of the conflict.
In the longer term, should Ukraine be able to hold onto the ground it has gained in Russia, it would present a valuable negotiation chip in any upcoming peace talks. Recent polls have shown that Ukrainians are softening on the notion of peace talks, and while the majority are still opposed to the idea, are increasingly amenable to making territorial concessions to achieve lasting peace. Having Russian land to trade in return could prove useful.
Regardless of the eventual outcome, the Ukrainians’ land grab will be embarrassing for Putin, and not the first time that his security intelligence and preparedness has suffered such a public failure in recent times. The terrorist attacks on Crocus City Hall in Moscow in March and in the Russian republic of Dagestan in June will already have been difficult to swallow for an administration staking its reputation on the preservation of Russian national security. Nothing about the invasion of Ukraine has quite gone to plan for Russia. While Ukraine may be increasingly under pressure to accept a non-military resolution to the war, costly as that might be, the Kursk incursion will be yet another setback for Russia that may likewise begin pivoting their position towards eventual conciliation.