Bangladesh is ringing in the New Year with general elections set to be held on 7 January 2024. Intensifying anti-government protests signal opposition desperation against an inevitable result as leadership change in the garment manufacturing powerhouse is unlikely. Major opposition parties are set to boycott the elections as the Awami League is doing its outmost to limit the capabilities of opposition leaders and activists. With the incumbent set to secure its fourth term in power, Bangladesh’s autocratic slide against the backdrop of a faltering economy and a tense geopolitical climate has cast a spotlight on the country.
Bangladesh’s recent history has been marked by problematic elections. In 2014, an opposition boycott led to the Awami League standing in uncontested elections. More recently, in 2018, the Awami League secured 258 of the 300 seats in the national parliament and its allies won another 30 on the back of allegations of widespread rigging and ballot-stuffing. The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), and its allies, secured only eight seats. Successive non-inclusive elections risk leading the country towards a de facto one-party authoritarian state, and the January 2024 elections look set to continue this slide. The Awami League has disregarded opposition calls for a free and fair election to be held under a non-aligned caretaker government, in response to which around one-third of Bangladesh’s 44 registered political parties will not participate in the election.
The opposition’s ability to ride the wave of voter dissent to improve its representation in parliament has been incrementally constrained over the last 15 years, and most recently by arrests and charges amid a countrywide crackdown on anti-government protests. Since mid-October the BNP has alleged that over 13,000 leaders and workers from its party have been arrested. Convictions in connection to old charges have further led to the sentencing of more than 150 BNP leaders and activists, driving many remaining BNP leaders into hiding. This chain of targeting has left the main opposition party essentially leaderless ahead of elections.
Bangladesh’s garment sector, which has been pivotal for the country’s growth, is in a state of flux. Garment sector workers, unhappy with the Awami League’s proposal to increase the sector’s minimum wage by only 50 percent, are protesting to demand a 100 percent increase in wages to reflect cost of living increases over the past five years. As a result of the wage-related unrest, at least 130 factories, employing over 400,000 workers have been forced to close because of worker walkouts, while other factory owners have opted to temporarily suspend operations. Police efforts to supress demonstrations have resulted in violent exchanges in which four workers have died, while at least 11,000 garment workers have been charged with violence and vandalism. Social unrest, economic fragility and underinvestment in key infrastructure, which have all materialised under the tenure of the Awami League, will add to political risks facing existing and prospective investors in Bangladesh, especially as countries like India, Vietnam and Indonesia offer equally favourable, but more stable alternatives.
Mass arbitrary arrests and violence against protesters has cast an international spotlight on Bangladesh and its upcoming elections. The Awami League is facing pressure from the west, the US in particular, to hold free and fair elections. The US has imposed visa curbs on an unspecified number of Awami League members in its efforts to encourage democratic order in the South Asian country, while US allies have condemned recent human rights atrocities against protesters and members of Bangladesh’s opposition. However, Bangladesh’s strategic geographical location will limit the extent of punitive measures the US could be willing to impose. Bangladesh serves as an important gateway for trade and commerce for the west to South and Southeast Asia, and its natural resources and demographic dividend have allowed many western companies with operations in the country to profit considerably. Amid heightened US-China tensions, a push too far by the west through broad economic or trade sanctions, could additionally run the risk of Bangladesh strengthening its improving relations with China.